It’s going to be another hot one this year, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada.
The federal government released its annual global mean temperature forecast, giving Canadians a sense of what they can expect from temperatures around the world this year.
And the expectation is more of the same.
After record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024 and a comparably warm 2025, temperatures are expected to remain at historically high levels in 2026.
The forecast said there’s a greater than 99 per cent chance that 2026 will be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023.
The latest forecast shows the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to be between 1.35 and 1.53 C above pre-industrial levels. That means global temperatures will remain at least 1 C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year.
It also predicted a 12 per cent chance that 2026 will exceed the 1.5 C Paris Agreement threshold. While exceeding that in a single year isn’t a failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal, which is defined by long-term average temperature over multiple decades.
Canada’s long-term forecasts show the period from 2026 to 2030 are likely to be the hottest five-year period on record.
The federal government is taking steps to address the rise in carbon emissions, including measures introduced in last year’s budget and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy.
“Canadians are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, from extreme heat to increased risks to communities and infrastructure,” said Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin. “This latest global temperature forecast provides important, science-based information to help governments, decision-makers, and communities better understand what lies ahead and plan accordingly.”
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