Annual food report projects grocery prices will continue to rise

Canada’s Food Price Report for 2025 forecasts another year of rising grocery costs, with overall food prices expected to increase between 3 and 5 per cent.

The average family of four is projected to spend $16,833.67 on food next year — up to $801.56 more than in 2024.

The annual report, now in its 15th year, is produced by researchers at Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan.

Using historical data and predictive modelling, the report outlines price forecasts across major categories, with meat, vegetables, and restaurant meals expected to see the largest increases.

While food inflation slowed in 2024, affordability remains a significant concern. Statistics Canada reports that 22.9 per cent of people in the provinces lived in food-insecure households in 2023, representing 8.7 million people — including 2.1 million children. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island recorded the highest rates, both near 29 per cent.

Food bank use continues to climb, with a record 2 million visits reported nationally, up 90 per cent since 2019. Younger Canadians face some of the sharpest pressures, with roughly 40 per cent of Gen Z respondents in a recent survey saying they used savings or borrowed money to buy food.

The report points to several global and domestic factors driving prices, including climate-related disruptions, supply chain instability, labour shortages, currency pressures and growing reliance on imported food. The weakening Canadian dollar is a particular concern for 2025, given Canada’s heavy dependence on U.S. trade.

Extreme weather, geopolitical conflicts, port disruptions and wildfires have also affected food production and transportation, with impacts expected to continue into next year.

This year’s report also highlights gaps in national food price data for northern territories, where affordability challenges are often far more severe but rarely captured in national surveys.

Researchers say the report’s findings underscore the need for better data, stronger food policies, and continued focus on resilience across Canada’s food systems.