Environment Canada says summer in Atlantic Canada is expected to be warmer than usual, with some southern areas also likely to see drier-than-normal conditions.
“The data shows a tilt toward above-normal temperatures across much of eastern Canada,” said Jennifer Smith, National Warning Preparedness Meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
A map showing the temperature outlook for Summer 2025. Photo: Environment Canada.
Smith presented the 2025 summer outlook this week. While the seasonal forecast indicates general trends, she cautioned it’s not a daily weather tool.
“They give you the backdrop, but not the script,” Smith said. “For short-term planning… your best tools are the WeatherCan app and weather.gc.ca.”
Rainfall projections are uncertain, with models showing a slight lean toward drier conditions in parts of southern Atlantic Canada. Labrador is one of the few areas showing a possible trend toward wetter conditions.
A map showing the seasonal precipitation outlook for Summer 2025. Photo: Environment Canada
Summer precipitation is especially hard to forecast, Smith explained, because it’s often shaped by short, localized downpours. “Even one major rain event can shift seasonal totals above normal, even if most days are dry,” she said.
The fire weather outlook for the Maritimes and eastern Quebec shows average severity, with no indication of below-average conditions. “That doesn’t mean it won’t be active — just that it’s in line with historical patterns,” said Bill Merrifield from Environment Canada’s climate research division.
Above-normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic may also contribute to warmer air temperatures over land, Merrifield added.
The agency is continuing to monitor risks from heatwaves and wildfire smoke, which can affect areas far from active fires. Smith encouraged residents to stay informed.
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