A Canadian politics professor says he is surprised the federal NDP ended their agreement with the Liberals.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Wednesday that the supply-and-confidence deal is over for good.
The deal with the Liberals was put in place to support Trudeau’s minority government until 2025, as long as they helped push through several policies.
J.P. Lewis, a professor at the University of New Brunswick’s Saint John campus, said it is unclear why the NDP believes this is a good political move for the party.
“It’s hard to see evidence, especially based on public polling, that suggests for them this is a good time unless they think it’s going to get worse,” Lewis told our newsroom.
Over the past year, the Liberals have dropped in the polls, the Conservatives have gone up and the NDP have been essentially unchanged, he noted.
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Lewis said some people may have thought the deal, which began in March 2022, would not last because this sort of thing is not common in Canadian politics.
But others may have thought it would last since the current Liberal government is closer to left-of-centre and has similar world views to the NDP, he said.
“I think there can be a case made for both why we should be surprised that it lasted this long or not just because of the different aspects of the relationship between the two parties,” said Lewis.
Without the deal, the Liberals are no longer guaranteed support from the NDP on confidence votes, meaning a federal election could happen sooner than October 2025.
Lewis said while this development makes an early election more likely, it is not necessarily a guarantee.
“We do have across the country three province elections this fall: British Columbia, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick,” he said, adding that parties may be wary of voter fatigue.
The politics professor believes the next early election possibility would be when the Liberals table their next budget in the spring.
Lewis said Singh and the New Democrats will now need to defend their position to voters — something he believes could be a challenge.
“Because they’re quite far away from the Conservatives, this may have sped up the day when Pierre Poilievre becomes prime minister,” he said.
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